A350 airbus

From September 17, Bloomberg has this report that Airbus projects 1,500 deliveries for its A350 in support of the “reimbursable launch investments” (aka “launch aid”) pledged by the UK, Germany, France and Spain, the Airbus-member states.

The article provides some detail about how the loan would be structured, and it is this sort of transaction that drives Boeing crazy. If Airbus doesn’t reach 1,500 sales, the loan is guaranteed by the state bank, KfW. (If sales exceed 1,500, Airbus continues to pay a “success fee,” another masterpiece in marketing mislabeling for its implications of success or failure of the program. This should be called a royalty, like it is on the A320.)

Boeing doesn’t have any guarantees if it fails to reach a sales target. This is one of the things at the crux of the WTO complaint.

Airbus says A350 launch aid will conform to WTO rules.

We’ve not been in the Boeing camp with respect to the legal attack on Airbus launch aid, but as readers know we don’t like government subsidies of any kind. Which brings us to….

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Earthquake Forecast

Multidisciplinary groups of scientists and engineers, each known as a "Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)" have developed earthquake forecasts since 1988. The 2007 WGCEP was commissioned to develop an updated, statewide forecast. The result is the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, available for download at www.scec.org/ucerf. Organizations sponsoring WGCEP 2007 include the USGS, California Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, and the California Earthquake Authority. The comprehensive new forecast builds on previous studies and also incorporates abundant new data and improved scientific understanding of earthquakes.

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